The Future of Aviation
General aviation (small airplanes) activity has decreased over the last fifteen years. Student pilot starts have decreased by one third. The number of knowledge exams given each year has decreased by one half. The number of small airplanes sold each year has decreased from 12,000 in 1980 to 3,000 in 2000.
To reverse this trend, airplanes need to be:
> safer
> more comfortable
>
more affordable
>
more visible to the general population
> easier for the pilot to fly
Safety
Automobile safety has improved such that the rate of fatalities has decreased from 5.5 fatalities per 100 million miles in 1964 to a current value of 1.5 per 100 million driving miles. Driving on the Interstate Highway System is safer, estimated at less than 1 per 100 million miles. In order for general aviation to become more popular, the safety record must improve from its current rate of 10 fatalities per 100 million miles to a rate equal to the highway safety record.
Most general aviation accidents occur as a result of pilot error or misjudgment. Many of these can be avoided by moving away from the current attitude of “brave adventurous pilot manually controlling all events in an airplane” to “sensible person utilizing fly-by-wire software to let the onboard computer fly the airplane safely.” Pilots will use the tools in normal operation once they are available in the airplane.
In addition to software described in the “Easier to Fly” section, additional new technology provides increased awareness of weather, terrain and traffic, better deicing protection, and onboard electronic charts for VFR and IFR navigation. An increased use of ballistic parachutes will also contribute to higher levels of safety.
Comfort
The general population sees light airplanes as noisy, bumpy, having too much vibration and often too small for comfort.
The situation can be improved as engines are developed that are less expensive, more efficient, more powerful, use normal automotive gasoline and are smoother running with less vibration (like any automotive engine, for example). This will enable the airplane to be slightly heavier, with additional space for occupants and additional noise and temperature conditioning. Larger propellers turning at a slower RPM will also decrease the noise heard not only by passengers but also the neighbors.
Affordability
In the same way that the price of personal computers and color televisions has decreased, general aviation will become more affordable primarily when it becomes more popular. This is a Catch-22, but aviation will become more popular as the other four issues listed here see improvement. An additional benefit will be seen by using equipment in airplanes that is built in high volume for the automotive industry, and as such, is available for lower cost.
More Visible
Very few people have a reason to be involved in or aware of general aviation, and because of this are less prone to considering it as an activity or means of transportation.
One strong reason for building the AirCar is the many people who will see the vehicle as they are driving, and be reminded of the technology and of the possibilities for transportation. It is a very cost-effective form of advertising. This is the strongest reason to reduce any regulatory resistance to a road-able airplane.
There is a multitude of automobile designs seen on highways every day, from Hummers to Minis to Suzuki Aeros to long-wheel-base pickups. This is evidence that the market accepts new ideas and individualistic designs of vehicle that accomplish a particular purpose. What better time to add a road-able aircraft to the mix, especially if it gets 100 mpg on the ground and 200 mph in the air?
Easier to Fly
There are many innovations being created by makers of UAV (unmanned aerial vehicles) that can be incorporated into a safer and easier piloting experience. This provides an important opportunity to change the piloting experience from that of manually flying the airplane while obtaining and monitoring the necessary information, to that of managing and monitoring information and letting a computer process that information and fly the airplane.
These innovations incorporated into user-friendly software will result in GPS receivers knowing the exact location of the aircraft (including which taxiway and/or runway at which airport). On a touch-screen menu in the aircraft, the pilot will select the desired runway, then heading, power and pitch commands for takeoff, climb, cruise, descent, approach and landing. As each menu item is selected by the pilot, the onboard computer will check that command to be safe (for example, checking runway length available at the current density altitude and wind conditions), process those commands and fly the aircraft as directed.
Also, ATC clearances could be sent digitally from ATC to the airplane (on the same frequency as the voice communication). As each instruction or clearance is received the pilot can read it on the touch-screen then press an OK button to “roger” the clearance and allow the computer to process that action.